Enhancing synergies for effective large-scale forest restoration in Mato Grosso, Brazilian Amazon

Abstract

Widespread deforestation in Mato Grosso (MT), Brazil, has produced negative environmental outcomes of global reach. Now, MT has committed to partly offset this impact through the allocation of 2.9Mha of forest recovery statewide, motivated by the expectation of the Brazilian Forest Code (BFC) enforcement. Using an integrated approach, we mapped priority areas for allocating a fraction of MT recovery target to eligible public lands (1Mha) and private lands with forest deficits according to the BFC (1Mha). We estimated the costs and benefits of forest recovery for four scenarios, built varying the relative importance of four key criteria (habitat enhancement, carbon storage, opportunity costs of agriculture and likelihood of natural forest regeneration). Solely prioritizing habitat enhancement (scenario B100) improved the representation of species with highly disturbed habitats, while leveling the weights across criteria (scenario EW) yielded uniform enhancement across species. Conversely, EW costed 23% less than B100 (US$1.9 billion by 2030) and sequestered 27% more carbon (114.7 TgCO2e by 2030). In all scenarios, private properties were key to enhance intensively deforested habitats, while restoration in public lands was more effective in reducing costs and mitigating carbon. Our results stress that the BFC enforcement is crucial for increasing species representativity in highly deforested areas, but also revealed opportunities for cost-effective restoration across the state.